Stocks Retreat on Inflation Concerns and a Weak US Job Market
View original at nasdaq.comStocks Retreat on Inflation Concerns and a Weak US Job Market The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed down -1.33%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.95%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.51%…
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The Iran war is unlikely to cause sustained inflation
80% confidenceReal-time risk premium for crude oil is $18/bbl, corresponding to estimate of impact of six-week full halt to tanker traffic in Strait of Hormuz
80% confidenceAll Gulf energy exporters would shut down production within weeks if the war drags on, driving crude oil prices to $150 a barrel
80% confidenceQ4 earnings expected to increase by +4.6% excluding Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks
80% confidenceThere will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender
80% confidenceBaseline features still-uncertain inflation picture with continued upside risks, arguing for maintaining policy rates at current mildly restrictive levels
80% confidenceYear-over-year revenue growth rate will accelerate each quarter throughout fiscal 2027
80% confidenceS&P earnings growth expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth
80% confidenceVessels sailing through Strait of Hormuz could be at risk from missiles or rogue drones
80% confidenceThe war in the Middle East could bring down the economies of the world
80% confidencePolicy should be on hold for quite some time as inflation comes down and labor market stabilizes
80% confidenceGovernment is exceptional at printing money and creating promises but can't print gold or create oil
80% confidence
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